Figures define downswing

Would the last person to leave Douglas County please turn out the lights?

That statement would have seemed ridiculous five years ago, but now maybe there's something to it.

While we're certainly not losing people at anything like the rate people are leaving many eastern states, dipping in population for what will probably be the third year in a row is something that hasn't happened in this county since bell bottoms and sideburns were popular.

According to the U.S. Census estimates, Douglas County's population peaked July 1, 2005, at 45,729. Both 2006 and 2007 showed slight decreases.

The real news is that the Nevada demographer, whose estimates have consistently posted increases, is now saying our population is decreasing. That means that when the Census releases the figures for July 1, 2008, we will probably show another decrease, completing the hat trick.

The reality check is that according to the Census, we've only lost 323 people since our peak, and that we're still looking at 4,000 more people than were here in 2000.

But the real Census is coming and unless federal numbers show a huge change, the state demographer is going to have to record an almost 10 percent decrease in the county's population.

That's because the state estimates are running about 5,000 people ahead of the feds, which would drop us below 50,000 residents. That statistical reckoning could affect the county's ability to receive grants, making tracking the population a lot more than just an intellectual exercise.