Douglas labor pool shrinking

Douglas County's unemployment numbers fell to 11. 8 percent for the month of November, but that might not be good news, officials say.

The county's total labor force shrank by 240 workers during 2009, from 23,480 to 23,240. That means fewer people are actually working than when unemployment hit a peak of 12.7 percent in September. There were 21,170 workers employed then, now there are 20,500. There were 22,307 workers in Douglas County at the end of 2007.

"On the surface, the decline in the rate is a positive sign, indicating the recession is beginning to subside," said Bill Anderson, chief economist for the Nevada Department of

Employment, Training & Rehabilitation. "Unfortunately, a more detailed review of the components of the unemployment rate reveals a troubling trend. Primary amongst them is the decline of the state's labor force. Nevada's labor force contracted for the second month in a row, falling by 1.5 percent, meaning roughly 13,900 workers either left the state or were too discouraged to seek employment."

Every year, monthly employment estimates are benchmarked to actual employment data collected each quarter from approximately 60,000 Nevada employers covered by unemployment insurance laws, Anderson said.

"Recently published, first quarter employment and wage information indicate Nevada's monthly survey of employers is underestimating the number of job losses in the state," Anderson said. "A preliminary comparison reveals year-over-year job levels were down roughly 9.0 percent in March of this year, as opposed to the 5.3 percent originally estimated. There isn't any reason to believe that the divergence improved in the following months. This year, we will likely see one of the biggest benchmark re-

estimates ever recorded, and a realization that Nevada's labor market is worse off than originally estimated."