Population estimates just that | RecordCourier.com

Population estimates just that

There's plenty of lots approved to handle the projected 3,400 people in additional population expected to arrive over the next two decades.

On Monday, Douglas County commissioners heard that the Nevada Demographer was forecasting that's how many new residents will move here in an early draft.

We know that the demographer's numbers are used by the state, but we're riding close to the 2020 Census, and that tends to adjust those numbers.

The demographer was running about 500 people behind the annual Census updates in 2015, which cut the difference in half from the previous year.

Douglas County is a hard place to figure out for a demographer. There are portions at Lake Tahoe with lower occupancy rates than some of Nevada's more populous ghost towns.

We're not at all certain of these numbers, because no one can be.

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Ask one of the 1,200-some folks who were here when the 1960 Census was taken about how fast Douglas County changed.

Compared to the 300 percent increase that took place between then and 1970, or the 200 percent increase between 1970 and 1980, about a half-percent growth over two decades seems unlikely.

While Douglas appears to be immune from the growth being spurred up in Storey County, we get the feeling that there will be some here as well.

With the opening of Interstate 580 to Spooner Junction, we feel there are portions of the north county may be on the verge of taking off.

We know the demographer knows that his prognostication is just that. We'll find out in three years how much growth has actually occurred, and maybe how well we're prepared for it.