A Volkswagen rally took advantage of the springlike weather in Genoa on Saturday.
Photo by Kurt Hildebrand.
Carson Valley’s faux spring is forecast to end tonight as a cold winter storm is predicted to bring rain and snow showers to the lower elevations and heavy snowfall to the Sierra Nevada.
A winter storm watch has been upgraded to a warning for the entire length of the Sierra starting 11 p.m. today.
“Precipitation will begin in northeast California around midnight Tuesday, then into the Tahoe Basin around 3-5 a.m., then into Mono County by around 7-8 a.m.,” said National Weather Service Reno meteorologist Colin McKellar. “The heavier round of snowfall that is associated with the dynamic cold front then starts in the early afternoon (Wednesday) in northeast California, late afternoon to early evening in the Tahoe area, then evening for Mono County.”
Snow levels are expected to start around 5,500 feet, rising to 6,000 feet by Wednesday afternoon, and then dropping down to 4,500 feet by sunset through the storm.
The most intense snowfall is predicted 5-11 p.m. Wednesday hitting around 2-3 inches an hour with up to 4 inches per hour at times. As much as a yard of snow could fall on the highest peaks.
Valley residents are unlikely to see more than an inch of snow from the entire storm with regions above 5,500 feet getting 4 inches at most, according to the forecast.
The first hint of precipitation in Carson Valley is forecast to arrive on Wednesday morning, increasing by the evening commute. Any snow is predicted to fall overnight.
Winds are predicted to remain fairly light in the Valley until late Wednesday morning, picking up out of the south to 20-25 mph, with 40 mph gusts on Wednesday afternoon.
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While a storm forecast for Monday and Tuesday appears to be heading south in more ways than one, by mid-week a much more powerful storm could bring several feet of snow to the eastern Sierra Nevada, forecasters said on Friday morning.
This weekend will see a break in the weather with temperatures in the lower 60s by Sunday, according to the National Weather Service.
“But in typical March fashion we won’t really have a chance to get used to these milder conditions as the weather becomes more active next week,” said National Weather Service Reno Meteorologist Mark Deutschendorf.
A far more intense storm could arrive on Wednesday, with the bulk of the snow and wind impacts continuing into Thursday.
“The speed of this storm and timing of the heaviest snow intensity (daytime vs. night) will affect the total snow amounts, but in general for the Sierra even the lower-end projections bring at least 1 foot for the Tahoe basin and 2 feet along the crest,” he said. “More aggressive scenarios where all the ingredients line up more optimally or persist longer could produce snow amounts at least double these lower-end projections, along with strong winds combining to produce white-out travel conditions.”
Deutschendorf acknowledged that things could change leading up to the storm.
“It’s almost a week out but given this relatively consistent storm signal showing up for several straight days, we would advise making some alternate travel plans that avoid being out on the Sierra roads from Tuesday night through early Thursday,” he said. “Far Western Nevada could also be impacted by at least several inches of snow around the middle of next week, especially if the heaviest precipitation occurs at night.”
There was a fair coating of snow on the Pine Nut Mountains on Friday morning, with as much precipitation falling on the east side of Carson Valley as on the west.
On Friday morning, Natural Resource Conservation Service snow telemetry indicated Heavenly Valley received 17 inches of snow since Wednesday.
A gauge located at the top of Pine Nut Creek in the Pine Nuts east of Gardnerville recorded .4 inches from the storm on Thursday, with .36 inches falling in Fish Springs.
On the West side, .31 inches was recorded in Fredericksburg and .26 inches in Sheridan, according to the National Weather Service.
In the Sierra, snow telemetry indicated 6 inches of snow brought the depth to 62 inches at Carson Pass. At Ebbetts Pass, 10 inches of snow brought the snow depth to 66 inches, or three-quarters of the snow water equivalent for March 6.