Real estate pendulum swings toward buyer

Bill Driscoll keeps his eye on the ball.

Sure, there's that recent slew of national reports suggesting ever-deeper holes for the economy in general and housing in particular. But the president of the Sierra Nevada Realtors Association pays far less attention to those than the multiple listing service for Carson Valley.

There's up and down, sure. That's simply the nature of sales, he says, having been through a few of these cycles like every experienced Realtor.

There's also the pendulum swinging from side to side over the years, between seller's market and buyer's market. The ball is approaching peak on the buyer's side.

You've heard the adage that real estate is all about location, location and, um, location. That might help explain why Driscoll and other leaders in his field give less weight to the national picture than local factors.

Carson Valley of course can't escape the world, or troubled California's reach. But there are longterm forces working in our favor. For example, there are no giant Ford plants about to close. The largest employer in the county is the school district, followed by the county government. We're not vulnerable to massive layoffs from a factory shutdown, as in Michigan.

The quality of life here ranks as high as you'll find. Our economic underpinning actually is pretty solid, although it may not seem that way these days.

Rob Wigton mentioned something during a speech to the Douglas County Building Industry Association that struck me:

"The fact remains that we sold real estate last year in this area at levels about equal to what was going on in 2002," the president of the Nevada Association of Realtors said. "Nationwide, it was still the fifth-best year in terms of number of housing units sold."

The market has dipped from a peak. The correction cuts sharply if you are in the business, certainly. Blood is flowing from brokerages, title firms, mortgage lenders and construction. The ripples hit the merchants, restaurants, casinos and others, including local media, plenty hard, too.

But this is a correction, which happens periodically, not a collapse. As a community we'll catch our breath, adjust, and move forward again.

Besides, there's a glint of silver in corrections. A drop in home prices will make homes more affordable to more people. Home ownership remains the single best way to build personal wealth, in addition to that niggling fact we all need places to live. Generally it's better to own than rent.

Even those who sell lower than they could have a year or two ago will profit from the increase in their home's value since they bought it. And they, too, will be better able to afford their next home. Sell low and buy low can work to your advantage as well, after all.

Downturns cull the field to the best equipped to survive and poised to sail when the winds blow our way again. That perspective is a bit Darwinian, I realize. But it also happens to be true.

This is self-serving, but mark my words: The businesses with the guts and means to keep marketing themselves through advertising will benefit the most of all through growing their market share and taking ground that more timid rivals surrender.

Perversely perhaps, there's a lot of opportunity in recession, in other words.

Meantime, you can almost hear the investors unfurling and fluffing their wings from their perches, rustling ever more excitedly with each dour report. Soon, soon now, the market will reach bottom, and it will be time to swoop in.

Wigton and his wife, Kari, have begun swooping themselves.

"I believe, strongly, that the worst is behind us and we are headed for stability," he said. "My wife and I just bought another investment home, at a great price, and we look forward to buying another in the not-too-distant future."

Wigton has his eye on the ball too.

n Don Rogers, publisher of The Record-Courier, can be reached at 782-5121, ext. 208, or drogers@recordcourier.com.