Well the first week of games provided many upsets and surprises but one theme rings true, the point spread does not matter.
A breakdown of week 1 looks like this. Ten favorites won their games, 9 covered the spread. There were six games that went over the total and 10 under the total. Aside form the totals, if you just pick the winner of the game, you have a winning wager.
Last week it was recommended to check the line movements and the feeling about going against them was correct, if you wager on the spreads (Totals are another story and will require a little more study). I noticed seven significant point spread movements and the result was a 3-4 record. So, if you went against the movements you were successful. Tracking the moves takes time and patience, and going against the moves takes guts. We'll continue to track this throughout the year and see how it does.
One thing that amazes me is the fascination with points. Everyone wants offense and a high scoring game and therefore they look at a total and can not stomach going under. As I said earlier, tracking total movements will take some more time, but the results show that wagering on the under in every game last week would have secured a handsome profit.
With that said, last week's recommendation of the over in the Redskins vs. Bears game was a failure but I did that based solely on the fact that the total had moved down by 2 points. The Giants covered giving us a split week, so now it is back to work.
The Green Bay Packers did not have a good first week, scoring only three points and losing star wide receiver Javon Walker for the rest of the year to a knee injury, but Brett Favre does not have a good career record in domes so it was no surprise they lost. This week they get to go home and play a team that is in the rebuilding stage, the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland has a new coach, Romeo Crennel, and should play with a lot of heart this year.
The point spread on this game opened favoring the Packers by 6 1/2. While this may seem like a lot of points to give up, my guess is that Favre rallies his troops to show that he still has something left in the tank. Take the Packers at home and lay the points.
The Sunday night game this week will go a long way in showing if the Raiders made the right moves in the offseason. The Kansas City Chiefs visit Oakland and are favored by 1 1/2. The Chiefs quite possibly have the best running game in the league with Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson running behind a strong offensive line. The Raiders will try to stop this duo by putting eight or nine men up near the line. The problem is the Chiefs also have a pretty good passing game.
Against the Jets last week the Chiefs made a statement to the league that they now have a defense to go with their high powered offense. If this game were being played in K.C., the Chiefs would be favored by 9. I'll run with the Chiefs in this game and give up the point and a half.
Keep your eyes open for any big line movements and remember to gamble responsibly, set a budget and stick to it.